NFL picks
Atlanta
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Tampa Bay
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Model Picks
1AI Analysis
Bijan Robinson o36.5 Receiving Yards
The Buccaneers allow a league-high 53.9 receiving yards per game to running backs, while Robinson averages 46.3 receiving yards per game, exceeding 36.5 yards in nine of 13 games, with six games over 50 yards, including 100 yards in a Week 1 matchup against Tampa Bay.
AI Analysis
Baker Mayfield o16.5 Rushing Yards
Mayfield has rushed for 19 or more yards in seven of 13 games this season, including four consecutive games, with a favorable matchup against Atlanta, who allows the ninth-most yards per carry to quarterbacks.
AI Analysis
Bijan Robinson o73.5 Rushing Yards
In 2025, Tampa Bay's run defense has dropped from allowing 3.9 to 4.7 yards per carry over the past month, resulting in a decrease from 3rd to 22nd in EPA allowed per carry, while Robinson has consistently rushed for significant yardage in recent games.
AI Analysis
Bijan Robinson o35.5 Receiving Yards
Bijan Robinson may struggle against the Bucs' run defense, but he could be effectively utilized in the passing game, as Tampa Bay allows the most receiving yards per game to running backs.
AI Analysis
Baker Mayfield u32.5 Passing Attempts
Baker Mayfield has thrown for less than 200 yards with 30 or fewer pass attempts in five of his last six games, and the Buccaneers may rely on their ground game against the Falcons, who rank 26th in run defense success rate.
AI Analysis
Rachaad White o17.5 Rushing Yards
Bucky Irving returned in Week 13 after a two-month absence, and while he will receive most touches, Rachaad White is expected to continue contributing following his impressive performance during Irving's absence, with both running backs likely to be utilized against a Falcons defense ranked 26th in run success rate.
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