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Jul 20, 2026
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6:10 PM
Baltimore
Orioles · Away
Boston
Red Sox · Home
Model Picks
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Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
AI Analysis
Wilyer Abreu o1.5 Total Bases (+100) Projection 1.86
Wilyer Abreu is projected in the 90th percentile for overall offensive talent, is batting 3rd in today's game, holds a platoon advantage over Shane Baz, and benefits from the Baltimore Orioles' weak outfield defense and limited same-handed relief pitchers.
AI Analysis
Wilyer Abreu o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-147) Projection 2.37
Wilyer Abreu is projected in the 90th percentile for offensive talent, batting third in today's game against Shane Baz, and has a favorable matchup with the Baltimore Orioles' weak outfield defense and limited same-handed relief pitchers.
AI Analysis
Gunnar Henderson o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-112) Projection 2.19
Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 92nd percentile for offensive skill according to THE BAT X projections and is projected to bat 1st in the lineup for this matchup.
AI Analysis
Pete Alonso o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-103) Projection 2.23
Pete Alonso is projected as the 20th-best batter in MLB, hitting 4th in today's lineup, with an average exit velocity of 93.7 mph, ranking in the 98th percentile.
AI Analysis
Gunnar Henderson o1.5 Total Bases (+141) Projection 1.75
Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 92nd percentile for overall offensive skill according to THE BAT X projections and is projected to bat 1st in the lineup for this matchup.
AI Analysis
Jackson Holliday o1.5 Total Bases (+224) Projection 1.38
Jackson Holliday's BABIP talent is projected in the 88th percentile by THE BAT X, and he has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs with 35%, making him well-suited to hit towards the league's shallowest left field fences.
AI Analysis
Jackson Holliday o0.5 Total RBIs (+316) Projection 0.37
Jackson Holliday's BABIP talent is projected in the 88th percentile, has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on flyballs, and is well-positioned to succeed against extreme groundball pitchers like Tolle.
AI Analysis
Taylor Ward o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+101) Projection 2.03
Taylor Ward is projected in the 94th percentile for offensive skill, set to bat 3rd in today's game with a platoon advantage, has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on flyballs, and holds a .322 BABIP ranking him in the 79th percentile.
AI Analysis
Pete Alonso o0.5 Total RBIs (+152) Projection 0.65
Pete Alonso is projected as the 20th-best batter in MLB, will hit 4th in today's lineup, has an average exit velocity of 93.7 mph ranking in the 98th percentile, and is +153 at Novig.
AI Analysis
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+130) Projection 1.86
Pete Alonso is projected as the 20th-best batter in MLB, will bat 4th today, has an average exit velocity of 93.7 mph ranking in the 98th percentile, and will have a favorable matchup against Tolle.
AI Analysis
Wilyer Abreu o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-144) Projection 2.37
Wilyer Abreu is projected in the 90th percentile for overall offensive talent, batting third in today's game against Shane Baz, while the Baltimore Orioles have a weak outfield defense and only one same-handed reliever.
AI Analysis
Caleb Durbin o0.5 Total RBIs (+208) Projection 0.53
Caleb Durbin is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today, improving from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom half this season, while facing a weak Baltimore Orioles outfield defense and benefiting from home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Coby Mayo u0.5 Total Hits (+104) Projection 0.6
Coby Mayo is projected to bat 6th in today's game, which is expected to have favorable weather conditions, but he faces a disadvantage against extreme flyball pitcher Tolle and on the visiting team against the strong infield defense of the Boston Red Sox.
AI Analysis
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total RBIs (+223) Projection 0.53
Taylor Ward is projected in the 94th percentile for offensive skill, will bat 3rd in today's lineup, has a platoon advantage against Tolle, holds an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on flyballs, and a .322 BABIP ranking him in the 79th percentile.
AI Analysis
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+129) Projection 1.84
Pete Alonso is projected as the 20th-best batter in MLB, hitting 4th in today's lineup, and has an average exit velocity of 93.7 mph, ranking in the 98th percentile.
AI Analysis
Coby Mayo u0.5 Total Hits (+114) Projection 0.59
Coby Mayo is projected to bat 6th in today's game, facing favorable weather, but will be at a disadvantage against the strong infield defense of the Boston Red Sox.
AI Analysis
Taylor Ward o1.5 Total Bases (+143) Projection 1.65
Taylor Ward is projected in the 94th percentile for offensive skill, batting 3rd in the lineup, with wind favoring batters, and will face Tolle with a platoon advantage, benefiting from a high opposite-field flyball rate and shallow RF fences.
AI Analysis
Adley Rutschman o1.5 Total Bases (+122) Projection 1.75
Adley Rutschman is projected in the 89th percentile for offensive talent, batting first in the lineup, with winds blowing out to left field at 12.4 mph, and will have the advantage of hitting from his stronger side against Tolle in today's game.
AI Analysis
Ceddanne Rafaela o0.5 Total RBIs (+186) Projection 0.56
Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup, with an 80th percentile batting average skill and a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs, while the wind is blowing out to LF at 12.4 mph and the Baltimore Orioles outfield defense is the 2nd-weakest in today's games.
AI Analysis
Samuel Basallo o0.5 Total RBIs (+195) Projection 0.54
Samuel Basallo is projected in the 85th percentile for home run skill, hitting 5th in the batting order, with favorable wind conditions at 12.4 mph to left field, an average exit velocity on flyballs of 94.9 mph, and a Barrel% of 13%, ranking in the 86th percentile.
AI Analysis
Pete Alonso o0.5 Total RBIs (+160) Projection 0.67
Pete Alonso is projected as the 20th-best batter in MLB and will bat 4th today, with favorable wind conditions for hitting and an average exit velocity of 93.7 mph, ranking in the 98th percentile.
AI Analysis
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+130) Projection 1.86
Pete Alonso is projected as the 20th-best batter in MLB and hitting 4th in today's lineup with favorable wind conditions for batters, boasting an average exit velocity of 93.7 mph at the 98th percentile.
AI Analysis
Gunnar Henderson o0.5 Total RBIs (+240) Projection 0.48
Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 92nd percentile for overall offensive skill according to THE BAT X projections, is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup, and the wind is expected to blow out to LF at 12.4 mph.
AI Analysis
Jackson Holliday o0.5 Total RBIs (+300) Projection 0.37
Jackson Holliday is projected in the 88th percentile for BABIP by THE BAT X, with favorable wind conditions for batters, an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on flyballs, and a matchup advantage against groundball pitcher Tolle.
AI Analysis
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total Home Runs (+614) Projection 0.18
Taylor Ward is projected in the 94th percentile for offensive skill and is set to bat 3rd in the lineup with favorable wind conditions blowing out to left field at 12.4 mph, while also having a platoon advantage against Tolle and an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on flyballs.
AI Analysis
Willson Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+133) Projection 0.74
Willson Contreras is projected to rank in the 97th percentile for offensive talent, hit 4th in the lineup, and pull 35.3% of his flyballs towards the league's shallowest left field fences, facing the 2nd-weakest outfield defense while benefiting from home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Ceddanne Rafaela o0.5 Total RBIs (+206) Projection 0.53
Ceddanne Rafaela is projected in the 80th percentile for batting average, hitting 2nd in the lineup, with a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on flyballs and facing the 2nd-weakest outfield defense, while benefiting from home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Payton Tolle o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Payton Tolle faces an Orioles lineup with a 26% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers, while he has a 30% strikeout rate at home over his last three starts.
AI Analysis
Christian Encarnacion-Strand u1.5 Total Bases (-190) Projection 0.79
Christian Encarnacion-Strand is batting 7th in today's game, which has the 5th-most favorable pitching weather, while the Boston Red Sox have the strongest infield defense, and he will be at a disadvantage playing away from home.
AI Analysis
Willson Contreras u0.5 Total Hits (+182) Projection 0.98
The weather report forecasts the 5th-most favorable pitching conditions of the day, Shane Baz has a handedness advantage over Willson Contreras, Contreras's ability to hit at a HR-maximizing launch angle has dropped to 0% in the past week from 15.4% on the season, and THE BAT X projects his true talent wOBA to be .364 compared to his current .397.
AI Analysis
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total Home Runs (+625) Projection 0.18
Taylor Ward is projected in the 94th percentile for offensive skill, will bat 1st, has a platoon advantage against Tolle, boasts an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on flyballs, and has improved his Barrel% from 5.9% to 20% recently.
AI Analysis
Gunnar Henderson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+685) Projection 0.16
Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 92nd percentile for offensive skill according to THE BAT X and is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup for this matchup.
AI Analysis
Leody Taveras u1.5 Total Bases (-228) Projection 0.82
Leody Taveras is projected to bat 6th in the lineup, facing favorable pitching weather conditions, while the Boston Red Sox possess the strongest infield defense today, and Taveras ranks in the 19th percentile for offensive ability with a .250 xwOBA according to THE BAT X.
AI Analysis
Coby Mayo u1.5 Total Bases (-239) Projection 0.62
Coby Mayo has been removed from the game early 47% of the time when starting against left-handed pitchers this year and faces challenges today, including playing on the visiting team and against extreme flyball pitcher Tolle.
AI Analysis
Anthony Seigler u0.5 Total Hits (+178) Projection 0.86
THE BAT X projects Anthony Seigler in the 19th percentile for his BABIP talent, and he has been substituted for a pinch-hitter 30% of the time when starting against right-handed pitchers this year, with favorable pitching weather expected.
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