MLB picks
Baltimore
Orioles · Away
Boston
Red Sox · Home
Model Picks
17Team Leaders
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
AI Analysis
Masataka Yoshida o0.5 Total Home Runs
Jacob Wilson is backed at +1140, and the target for home runs is Dean Kremer at Fenway Park, where he has a poor HR/FB rate and is facing Masataka Yoshida, who has recently performed well with a .351 average and two home runs in his last 10 games.
AI Analysis
Carlos Narvaez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+120) Projection 1.71
Fenway Park is projected as the 3rd-best field for run-scoring, and Carlos Narvaez, who has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate for flyballs and will benefit from facing the 4th-worst outfield defense from the Baltimore Orioles, has improved his HR-optimizing launch angle rate from 13.8% to 19.2% this year.
AI Analysis
Ceddanne Rafaela o0.5 Total RBIs (+223) Projection 0.52
Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to bat 2nd and is in the 80th percentile for batting average, while Fenway Park ranks as the 3rd-best field for run-scoring, and the Baltimore Orioles have the 4th-worst outfield defense.
AI Analysis
Wilyer Abreu o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-141) Projection 2.5
Wilyer Abreu is projected in the 90th percentile for offensive talent, hitting 3rd in today's game at Fenway Park, which is ranked 3rd for run-scoring and has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors, while Abreu also has a handedness advantage over Kyle Bradish.
AI Analysis
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total RBIs (+153) Projection 0.73
Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 3rd in today's game and ranks in the 90th percentile for offensive talent according to THE BAT X, while Fenway Park is projected as the 3rd-best field for run-scoring and has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors, giving Abreu a handedness advantage over Kyle Bradish.
AI Analysis
Willson Contreras o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-141) Projection 2.35
Willson Contreras is ranked as the 18th-best batter in the majors by THE BAT X, is batting 4th in today's game, and is suited for Fenway Park, projected as the 3rd-best field for run-scoring, while the Baltimore Orioles have the 4th-worst outfield defense among today's teams.
AI Analysis
Wilyer Abreu o1.5 Total Bases (+104) Projection 1.94
The BAT X projects Wilyer Abreu in the 90th percentile for offensive talent and has him hitting 3rd in today's lineup, while Fenway Park is ranked as the 3rd-best field for run-scoring with the shallowest RF dimensions, and Abreu holds a handedness advantage over Kyle Bradish.
AI Analysis
Willson Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+144) Projection 0.7
Willson Contreras is ranked as the 18th-best batter in the majors by THE BAT X and is batting 4th in today's game at Fenway Park, which is projected as the 3rd-best field for run-scoring, while the Baltimore Orioles have the 4th-worst outfield defense.
AI Analysis
Willson Contreras o1.5 Total Bases (+122) Projection 1.75
Willson Contreras is ranked as the 18th-best batter in the majors and is hitting 4th in today's game at Fenway Park, which is projected as the 3rd-best field for run-scoring, while the Baltimore Orioles have the 4th-worst outfield defense.
AI Analysis
Carlos Narvaez o0.5 Total RBIs (+239) Projection 0.46
THE BAT projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best field for run-scoring, while Carlos Narvaez has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate of 37.9% on flyballs and will benefit from playing against the Baltimore Orioles, who have the 4th-worst outfield defense, as he also enjoys home field advantage and has increased his HR-optimizing launch angle rate from 13.8% to 19.2% this year.
AI Analysis
Christian Encarnacion-Strand u0.5 Total Hits (+147) Projection 0.74
Christian Encarnacion-Strand is batting 8th in today's game at Fenway Park, which has one of the lowest altitudes among major league stadiums, while the Boston Red Sox outfield defense is considered the best among teams playing today; playing on the road generally decreases hitters' metrics, and Encarnacion-Strand's launch angle standard deviation of 30.2° since last season is in the 19th percentile, indicating a lower batting average on balls in play.
AI Analysis
Taylor Ward o1.5 Total Bases (+133) Projection 1.72
Taylor Ward ranks in the 94th percentile for offensive talent according to THE BAT X projections, is set to bat 1st today, and has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on flyballs, which aligns well with Fenway Park's favorable hitting conditions.
AI Analysis
Eduardo Rivera o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-102) Projection 4.5
The Baltimore Orioles' projected batting order includes three players with a K% over 27% according to THE BAT X, and Fenway Park's low altitude of 16 feet contributes to reduced offensive output, while pitcher Eduardo Rivera benefits from home field advantage.
AI Analysis
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total RBIs (+217) Projection 0.49
Taylor Ward ranks in the 94th percentile for offensive talent according to THE BAT X, is projected to bat first today, has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on flyballs, and will have the platoon advantage over Eduardo Rivera while playing in Fenway Park, which is projected as the 3rd-best field for run-scoring.
See Every Model's Pick
Unlock the full pick breakdown, win-rates, and real-time alerts for every future game.