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Sep 11, 2026
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6:07 PM
Baltimore
Orioles · Away
Toronto
Blue Jays · Home
Model Picks
11Team Leaders
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
AI Analysis
Nathan Lukes o0.5 Total RBIs (33%) Projection 0.47
THE BAT X projects Nathan Lukes in the 90th percentile for batting average and he is expected to bat 2nd in today's game, while Rogers Centre ranks 6th for LHB home runs and has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions, giving Lukes the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt, who has a significant platoon split.
AI Analysis
Chris Bassitt o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (48%) Projection 3.97
Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 ballpark for strikeouts, with the matchup expected to have the 2nd-most suitable pitching weather, while Chris Bassitt's curveball usage has increased from 16.3% to 22.1%, and he has a K/9 of 6.43 compared to a projected true talent level of 7.81.
AI Analysis
Chris Bassitt o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (46%) Projection 3.91
Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 ballpark for strikeouts, is expected to have the 2nd-most suitable pitching weather for this matchup, and Chris Bassitt's curveball usage has increased from 16.3% to 22.1%, despite posting a 6.43 K/9 compared to an estimated true talent level of 7.81.
AI Analysis
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (43%) Projection 1.67
THE BAT X projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 3rd-best hitter in the majors and he is hitting 3rd in today's lineup, with Rogers Centre ranked as the 6th-best park for right-handed home runs.
AI Analysis
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (44%) Projection 1.98
Pete Alonso is projected as the 15th-best hitter and is slated to bat 2nd in today's game, while Rogers Centre ranks as the 6th-best park for right-handed home runs and has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions, and Alonso has increased his Barrel% from 14% to 25% in the past week.
AI Analysis
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total RBIs (34%) Projection 0.55
Kazuma Okamoto ranks in the 95th percentile for home run skill according to THE BAT X, with Rogers Centre projected as the 6th-best park for right-handed home runs and having the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions, while his Barrel% has improved from 13.4% to 22.2% over the last 14 days.
AI Analysis
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (37%) Projection 0.65
The BAT X projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 3rd-best hitter in the majors and he is slated to hit 3rd in today's lineup, while Rogers Centre is ranked as the 6th-best park for right-handed home runs and features the 10th-shallowest center field fences.
AI Analysis
Gunnar Henderson o0.5 Total RBIs (34%) Projection 0.58
Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 93rd percentile for offensive talent according to THE BAT X, is projected to bat third today, and will have an advantage against Max Scherzer due to the stadium's dimensions and his batting side.
AI Analysis
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (40%) Projection 0.65
The BAT X projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 3rd-best hitter in the majors, and he is set to bat 3rd in today's lineup, while the Rogers Centre is ranked as the 6th-best park for right-handed home runs, with Guerrero Jr. having an advantage due to his tendency to hit flyballs to center field and facing the 10th-shallowest CF fences.
AI Analysis
Pete Alonso o0.5 Total RBIs (37%) Projection 0.66
Pete Alonso is projected as the 15th-best hitter and is batting 2nd today, while Rogers Centre ranks as the 6th-best park for right-handed home runs and has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions, with Alonso recently improving his Barrel% from 14% to 25% in the past 7 days.
AI Analysis
Pete Alonso o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (52%) Projection 2.38
Pete Alonso is projected as the 15th-best hitter by THE BAT X and will bat 2nd in today's game, while Rogers Centre is ranked as the 6th-best park for right-handed home runs and has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions, with Alonso recently improving his Barrel% from 14% to 25% over the past week.
AI Analysis
Kazuma Okamoto u1.5 Total Bases (70%) Projection 0.77
Kazuma Okamoto is batting 6th in this matchup, a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the order, and faces a disadvantage against Chris Bassitt due to his large platoon split, while having shown poor plate discipline with a 3.24 K/BB rate.
AI Analysis
Pete Alonso o0.5 Total RBIs (38%) Projection 0.67
Pete Alonso is projected as the 15th-best hitter and is set to bat 2nd in today's game, while Rogers Centre is ranked as the 6th-best park for right-handed home runs and has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors; Alonso has improved his Barrel% from 14% to 25% over the past week.
AI Analysis
Gunnar Henderson o1.5 Total Bases (44%) Projection 1.79
Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 93rd percentile for offensive talent according to THE BAT X, and is projected to bat 3rd today at Rogers Centre, which ranks as the 6th-best stadium for LHB home runs and features the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors, providing Henderson an advantage against Max Scherzer with 43% at Novig.
AI Analysis
Alejandro Kirk o0.5 Total RBIs (35%) Projection 0.55
The BAT X projects Alejandro Kirk in the 94th percentile for batting average and he is expected to bat 4th in the lineup, with the Rogers Centre having the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions, likely benefiting his stats, while his exit velocity on flyballs has increased from a seasonal average of 92.4 mph to 98.7 mph in the past week.
AI Analysis
Gunnar Henderson o1.5 Total Bases (43%) Projection 1.77
Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 93rd percentile for offensive talent according to THE BAT X, is projected to hit 3rd in today's lineup, and has an estimated true talent wOBA of .337 despite a current wOBA of .304.
AI Analysis
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (35%) Projection 0.62
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the majors, will hit 3rd in the lineup today, has a high flyball rate to center field, benefits from home field advantage, and has increased his exit velocity from 90.5 mph to 98.5 mph over the past week.
AI Analysis
Coby Mayo o0.5 Total RBIs (35%) Projection 0.59
Coby Mayo ranks in the 96th percentile for home run talent, is projected to bat 4th in the lineup, and has seen his Barrel% increase to 18.2% over the last week, while Rogers Centre is ranked 6th for right-handed home runs and has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions.
AI Analysis
Jesus Sanchez o0.5 Total Home Runs (13%)
Jesus Sanchez's left-handed power and strong performance at Rogers Centre, combined with Bassitt's susceptibility to lefty home runs, position him as a potential long-shot home run candidate.
AI Analysis
Chris Bassitt o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (49%)
Chris Bassitt is projected to have 3.97 strikeouts on 93 pitches against his former team, with a strikeout rate of 7.99 K/9 over the last 30 days, while the Blue Jays are in a potentially weakened offensive state following a West Coast road trip.
AI Analysis
Max Scherzer o1.5 Walks Allowed (51%)
Max Scherzer has walked 22 batters over his last 46 innings, averaging 4.4 BB/9 at home, and the Orioles are a Top 10 BB% team in the second half.
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