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Model Picks
12AI Analysis
Drake London o61.5 Receiving Yards (51%) Projection 82.75 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons, 5-point underdogs, are projected to pass 60.2% of the time, ranking 5th highest this week, in a game expected to have 129.7 total plays, as opposing teams averaged 35.8 pass attempts against the Steelers last year, while Drake London is forecasted to receive 10.1 targets, positioning him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
AI Analysis
Kyle Pitts Sr. o40.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 51.23 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons are projected to pass on 59.8% of their plays, ranking 7th in the league, while facing a game script as -4.5-point underdogs against the Steelers, who allowed an average of 35.8 pass attempts per game last season.
AI Analysis
Bijan Robinson Score a Touchdown (Yes: 59%) Projection 0.72 (Yes)
The Falcons offense had the 7th quickest pace in football at 28.09 seconds per snap last year, while opposing teams averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers, ranking 5th in the league; Bijan Robinson earned a 20.6% Red Zone Target Share in the 98th percentile among RBs, averaged 4.0 air yards per game in the 94th percentile, and caught an average of 0.20 touchdowns per game, ranking in the 91st percentile among running backs.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o210.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 227.26 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 65.5 offensive plays, while Aaron Rodgers is expected to throw 35.4 passes, ranking 9th among quarterbacks, and the Atlanta Falcons defense allowed the highest average yards-after-the-catch last year at 0.00.
AI Analysis
Bijan Robinson u76.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 72.27 (Under)
The Atlanta Falcons, -4.5-point underdogs, are projected to have the 7th-least run-oriented offense this week with a 40.2% run rate, facing a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that had the 7th-best efficiency against rushing attacks last year, allowing 4.12 adjusted yards-per-carry.
AI Analysis
Drake London Score a Touchdown (Yes: 32%) Projection 0.44 (Yes)
The Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs, are projected for a high-volume passing game with an expected 131.9 total plays, while Drake London ranked in the 93rd percentile for air yards and the 96th percentile for Weighted Opportunity Rating last year.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Warren o15.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 20.14 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run the 5th-most offensive plays this week with 65.5, while Jaylen Warren is expected to average 3.6 targets, ranking in the 92nd percentile for running backs, with an 8.7% target share and 16.0 adjusted yards per game, marking him as a top pass-catching RB, and he completed 95.8% of passes thrown to him last year, placing him in the 98th percentile.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Warren o39.5 Rushing Yards (58%) Projection 49.33 (Over)
The Steelers are a 5-point favorite for this week's game, expected to run 65.5 offensive plays, while Jaylen Warren averaged 50.0 adjusted yards per game last year and the Falcons allowed 127.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth o25.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 31.83 (Over)
The model predicts the Steelers will have the 10th-highest pass rate this week at 59.0%, anticipate the second-highest total plays at 131.9, and project Pat Freiermuth to receive 4.5 targets, ranking in the 79th percentile for tight ends, while the Falcons pass defense allowed the most yards-after-the-catch to tight ends last year with an average of 0.00 yards.
AI Analysis
Michael Pittman Jr. o46.5 Receiving Yards (50%) Projection 52.64 (Over)
The model ranks the Steelers as having the 10th-most pass-focused offense with a 59.0% pass rate and forecasts the game to have the 2nd-highest plays at 131.9, while Michael Pittman is projected for 7.6 targets, placing him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Warren o15.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 20.95 (Over)
Projections indicate the game will have 130.0 plays, with Jaylen Warren expected to average 3.7 targets, placing him in the 92nd percentile among running backs, while he had an 8.7% Target Share last year, ranking in the 76th percentile, and averaged 16.0 adjusted yards per game, ranking in the 82nd percentile, and completed 95.8% of targets, ranking in the 98th percentile.
AI Analysis
Drake London o59.5 Receiving Yards (59%) Projection 82.13 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons, as -3.5-point underdogs, are projected to pass 59.4% of the time, ranking 8th in the league, with a forecast of 130 total plays and Drake London expected to receive 10.1 targets, placing him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Michael Pittman Jr. o39.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 52.64 (Over)
The model predicts the Steelers will have the 10th-highest pass rate at 59.0% this week, with a projected 131.9 plays in the game; Michael Pittman is projected for 7.6 targets, placing him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers, having run routes on 89.1% of his team's dropbacks last year and ranking in the 75th percentile for air yards at 21.3%.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth o24.5 Receiving Yards (56%) Projection 29.58 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 65.5 offensive plays this week, with Pat Freiermuth expected to receive 4.2 targets, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends, while the Falcons conceded an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch to opposing tight ends last year.
AI Analysis
Tua Tagovailoa o1.5 Rushing Yards (50%) Projection 2.84 (Over)
This game is projected to have 129.7 plays, the 4th-largest volume this week, with the Atlanta Falcons having played 3rd-most low wind games last year, potentially leading to lower pass volume and increased running activity, while Pittsburgh's defensive tackles ranked as the 6th-worst in run defense.
AI Analysis
DK Metcalf o48.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 57.12 (Over)
Projections indicate the Pittsburgh Steelers will run 65.5 offensive plays this week, while DK Metcalf is expected to receive an average of 7.4 targets, ranking him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers, and he ranked in the 84th percentile for air yards and the 90th percentile for Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) last season, averaging 49.0 adjusted yards per game.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o0.5 Rushing Yards (52%) Projection 5.62 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a 4.5-point favorite this week, projected to run 65.5 offensive plays, while the Atlanta Falcons have allowed 127.0 adjusted rushing yards per game, ranking 10th worst in the league.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Warren o43.5 Rushing Yards (51%) Projection 49.35 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a 4.5-point favorite this week, projected to run the 5th-most offensive plays at 65.5, while Jaylen Warren averaged 50.0 adjusted yards per game last year, and the Atlanta Falcons allowed 127.0 adjusted yards per game, ranking 10th in the league for run defense.
AI Analysis
DK Metcalf o48.5 Receiving Yards (57%) Projection 56.79 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 65.4 offensive plays this week, while DK Metcalf is expected to receive an average of 7.5 targets, ranking in the 89th percentile among wide receivers, also grading in the 84th percentile for air yards with 74.0 per game, and achieving a 63.6 in WOPR, placing him in the 90th percentile, alongside an average of 49.0 adjusted yards per game, which corresponds to the 84th percentile.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o213.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 228.49 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run the 5th-most offensive plays this week with 65.4 plays, while Aaron Rodgers is expected to throw 35.6 passes, ranking 8th among quarterbacks, and the Atlanta Falcons defense allowed the most yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth o25.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 29.71 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run the 5th-most offensive plays this week at 65.4, with Pat Freiermuth expected to receive 4.2 targets, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends, while the Falcons' pass defense allowed the highest average yards-after-the-catch to opposing tight ends last year.
AI Analysis
Tua Tagovailoa o199.5 Passing Yards (51%) Projection 250.62 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons, 4.5-point underdogs, are projected to pass on 59.8% of their plays, ranking 7th in frequency this week, with a total of 129.9 plays anticipated and Tua Tagovailoa forecasted for 35.9 pass attempts, while opposing teams averaged 35.8 pass attempts against the Steelers last year.
AI Analysis
Tua Tagovailoa o201.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 250.81 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons are projected to pass on 59.4% of their plays, ranking 8th in the league, as they face a passing game script as -3.5 point underdogs, with Tua Tagovailoa expected to have 35.8 pass attempts, and opponents averaged 35.8 pass attempts against the Steelers defense last year.
AI Analysis
Tua Tagovailoa o210.5 Passing Yards (50%) Projection 249.44 (Over)
This game is projected to have the 4th-largest volume of plays at 130.2, with Tua Tagovailoa anticipated to have 35.1 pass attempts, while opposing teams averaged 35.8 pass attempts and 243.0 adjusted yards per game against the Steelers defense last year, which also allowed the highest average YAC of 0.00.
AI Analysis
Kyle Pitts Sr. o40.5 Receiving Yards (52%) Projection 51.23 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons, 4.5-point underdogs, are projected to pass on 59.8% of their plays against the Steelers, with expectations of 129.9 total plays and Kyle Pitts running routes on 91.4% of passing plays last year.
AI Analysis
Drake London o61.5 Receiving Yards (52%) Projection 82.75 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons are projected to pass 60.2% of the time as 5-point underdogs against the Steelers, with expectations for 129.7 total plays and Drake London forecasted for 10.1 targets, ranking in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Kyle Pitts Sr. o39.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 51.8 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons are projected to pass on 60.2% of their offensive plays as -5-point underdogs, with a game expectation of 129.7 plays, while Kyle Pitts ran routes on 91.4% of passing plays last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o0.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 5.62 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4.5-point favorites this week and are projected to run 65.5 offensive plays, while the Atlanta Falcons' run defense has allowed 127.0 adjusted yards per game last season, ranking 10th worst in the league.
AI Analysis
Bijan Robinson o69.5 Rushing Yards (61%) Projection 76.87 (Over)
The game is projected to have 130.2 plays, with the Atlanta Falcons experiencing low wind conditions impacting their offensive performance, while Bijan Robinson is forecasted for 19.1 rush attempts, ranking in the 95th percentile for carries and generating 68.0 adjusted yards per game last year.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o199.5 Passing Yards (61%) Projection 227.26 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run the 5th-most offensive plays this week with 65.5, while Aaron Rodgers is expected to throw 35.4 passes, ranking 9th among quarterbacks, and he had a 66.9% Adjusted Completion percentage last year, which is in the 75th percentile, while the Atlanta Falcons allowed the most yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year.
AI Analysis
Tua Tagovailoa o19.5 Passing Completions (59%) Projection 23.34 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons, as -3.5-point underdogs, are projected to pass on 59.4% of plays, with Tua Tagovailoa expected to have 35.8 pass attempts, while opposing teams averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers last year.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Warren o43.5 Rushing Yards (50%) Projection 49.35 (Over)
The Steelers are a 4.5-point favorite this week, projected to run 65.5 offensive plays, while Jaylen Warren averaged 50.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, and the Falcons allowed 127.0 adjusted rushing yards per game, ranking 10th in the league.
AI Analysis
Drake London Score a Touchdown (Yes: 33%) Projection 0.44 (Yes)
The Atlanta Falcons are projected to pass 59.4% of the time as 3.5-point underdogs, with expectations for 130.0 total plays, while opposing teams averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers last year, and Drake London had a 34.1% Red Zone Target Share, ranking in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Warren o39.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 48.84 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 3.5-point favorites this week, projected to run 65.4 offensive plays, while Jaylen Warren averaged 50.0 adjusted yards per game last year, and the Atlanta Falcons defense allowed 127.0 adjusted yards per game.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Warren o39.5 Rushing Yards (59%) Projection 48.84 (Over)
The Steelers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, projecting to run the 5th-most offensive plays at 65.4, while Jaylen Warren averaged 50.0 adjusted yards per game last year, and the Falcons' run defense allowed 127.0 adjusted yards per game.
AI Analysis
Drake London o59.5 Receiving Yards (54%) Projection 82.13 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons, as -3.5-point underdogs, are projected to pass on 59.4% of plays this game, with an expected total of 130.0 plays, and Drake London predicted to receive 10.1 targets, ranking in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Warren o39.5 Rushing Yards (57%) Projection 48.84 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, projected to run 65.4 offensive plays, while Jaylen Warren averaged 50.0 adjusted yards per game last season and the Atlanta Falcons allowed 127.0 adjusted yards per game to opposing teams.
AI Analysis
Rico Dowdle Score a Touchdown (Yes: 42%)
Jaylen Warren has been with the Steelers longer than Rico Dowdle, but Dowdle is expected to be the early-down back, and the Falcons' defense is weakened by injuries, potentially benefiting the Steelers' offense.
AI Analysis
DK Metcalf o48.5 Receiving Yards (52%) Projection 56.79 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run the 5th-most offensive plays this week with 65.4 plays, while DK Metcalf is expected to receive an average of 7.5 targets, ranking in the 89th percentile among wide receivers, and he also ranks in the 84th percentile for air yards per game with 74.0 and in the 90th percentile for WR WOPR with a score of 63.6, averaging 49.0 adjusted yards per game, placing him in the 84th percentile.
AI Analysis
Kyle Pitts Sr. o43.5 Receiving Yards (57%) Projection 51.27 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons, 3.5-point underdogs, are projected to pass on 59.4% of their offensive plays, ranking 8th in the league, with a game expected to have 130.0 total plays and Kyle Pitts running routes on 91.4% of the passing plays last year, placing him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
AI Analysis
Bijan Robinson o35.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 39.78 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons, facing a -3.5-point deficit, are projected to pass 59.4% of the time, ranking 8th in frequency, with expectations of 130.0 total plays, as opposing teams averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers last year, while Bijan Robinson had a 73.4% Route Participation Rate, positioning him among the most utilized pass-game running backs.
AI Analysis
Jaylen Warren o14.5 Receiving Yards (57%) Projection 20.22 (Over)
The projections estimate that the Pittsburgh Steelers will run the 5th-most offensive plays this week with 65.4 plays, while Jaylen Warren is expected to receive an average of 3.6 targets, ranking in the 93rd percentile for running backs, and he had a target share of 8.7% last year, placing him in the 76th percentile; he averaged 16.0 adjusted yards per game, ranking in the 82nd percentile, and completed 95.8% of passes thrown to him, ranking in the 98th percentile.
AI Analysis
DK Metcalf o49.5 Receiving Yards (52%) Projection 56.79 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 65.4 offensive plays this week, while DK Metcalf is anticipated to receive an average of 7.5 targets, ranking in the 89th percentile among wide receivers, and he achieved an average of 74 air yards per game, ranking 84th percentile, with a Weighted Opportunity Rating of 63.6 in the 90th percentile, averaging 49 adjusted yards per game and placing in the 84th percentile.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o210.5 Passing Yards (55%) Projection 228.49 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run the 5th-most offensive plays this week at 65.4 plays, while Aaron Rodgers is expected to throw 35.6 passes, ranking 8th among quarterbacks, and he had a 66.9% Adjusted Completion% last year; the Atlanta Falcons defense allowed the most yards-after-the-catch (YAC) in football last season.
AI Analysis
Tua Tagovailoa o199.5 Passing Yards (50%) Projection 250.62 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons, as -4.5-point underdogs, are projected to pass on 59.8% of plays, ranking 7th in passing frequency this week, with a total of 129.9 plays expected, while Tua Tagovailoa is forecasted for 35.9 pass attempts, and opposing teams averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers last year.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o199.5 Passing Yards (61%) Projection 227.26 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 65.5 offensive plays this week, while Aaron Rodgers is expected to throw 35.4 passes, ranking 9th among quarterbacks, with a 66.9% Adjusted Completion% in the previous season, and the Atlanta Falcons defense allowed the highest average YAC at 0.00 last year.
AI Analysis
Tua Tagovailoa o199.5 Passing Yards (52%) Projection 250.62 (Over)
The Atlanta Falcons are projected to pass on 59.8% of their plays in a game where they are -4.5-point underdogs, with Tua Tagovailoa expected to have 35.9 pass attempts, as the matchup is anticipated to generate the 5th-largest total of plays at 129.9.
AI Analysis
Tua Tagovailoa o1.5 Rushing Yards (51%) Projection 2.83 (Over)
This game is projected to have the 5th-largest volume of plays this week at 129.9, with the Atlanta Falcons having played the 3rd-most low wind games last year, which impacts their offensive performance, while Pittsburgh's defensive tackles ranked as the 6th-worst in run defense last year.
AI Analysis
Bijan Robinson u76.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 71.53 (Under)
The Atlanta Falcons, as -5-point underdogs, are projected to have a 39.8% run rate, making them the 5th-least run-oriented offense this week, while the Pittsburgh Steelers defense had the 7th-best efficiency against rushing attacks last year, allowing 4.12 adjusted yards-per-carry.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o199.5 Passing Yards (59%) Projection 229.57 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 65.5 offensive plays this week, Aaron Rodgers recorded a 66.9% Adjusted Completion% last year, and the Atlanta Falcons defense allowed the highest average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch in the league.
AI Analysis
Kyle Pitts Sr. Score a Touchdown (Yes: 21%)
Pitts recorded a career-high 88 receptions and played 88% of offensive snaps last year, making him a strong candidate to score against a Steelers defense that allowed the fourth-most receptions to tight ends, including 11 touchdowns in 2025.
AI Analysis
Brian Robinson o19.5 Rushing Yards (52%)
The prop is set at -115, anticipating the Falcons will rely on the running game with Robinson expected to handle six to eight carries.
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