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Model Picks
14AI Analysis
Chase Brown Score a Touchdown (Yes: 57%) Projection 0.78 (Yes)
The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to have a 65.5% pass rate this week, while Chase Brown ranks in the 94th percentile among running backs for air yards (3.0 per game) and WOPR (22.5), and is in the 98th percentile for catching touchdowns (0.26 per game), as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' pass defense allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% (90.3%) to running backs last year.
AI Analysis
Ja'Marr Chase o85.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 94.11 (Over)
The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to have a 64.9% pass rate this week, with Ja'Marr Chase expected to receive 11.4 targets, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers, and he averaged 101.0 air yards per game last year, placing him in the 96th percentile.
AI Analysis
Baker Mayfield o15.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 19.52 (Over)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected as the 8th-most run-centric team this week with a 44.7% run rate, and they averaged 58.9 runs per game last year, while Baker Mayfield ranked in the 95th percentile for yards-after-contact, and the Bengals had the worst run defense, allowing 146.0 adjusted yards per game.
AI Analysis
Emeka Egbuka u59.5 Receiving Yards (60%) Projection 54.77 (Under)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to have a 55.3% pass rate, making them the 8th-least pass-heavy team this week, with the game expected to feature 125.3 offensive plays, the 5th-lowest total of the week, while Cincinnati's cornerbacks ranked 7th in the NFL last year in pass coverage.
AI Analysis
Baker Mayfield u232.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 218.43 (Under)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team with a 55.3% pass rate this week, expected to see 125.2 offensive plays, the 5th-lowest total, while Baker Mayfield is forecasted to attempt an average of 32.2 passes, the 8th-fewest among quarterbacks, against a Cincinnati secondary ranked 7th-best at covering pass-catchers.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o267.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 303.38 (Over)
The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to have a 65.5% pass rate this week, with Joe Burrow expected to average 38.3 pass attempts, while the Buccaneers defense allowed the 7th-most adjusted yards and the highest yards-after-the-catch last year.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o6.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 11.91 (Over)
The Bengals, favored by 3.5 points, are expected to emphasize rushing in their upcoming game, with Joe Burrow's run game usage predicted to increase from 7.6% to 12.9%, while facing the NFL's 3rd-worst run defense from Tampa Bay's defensive tackles.
AI Analysis
Bucky Irving Score a Touchdown (Yes: 40%) Projection 0.6 (Yes)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are -3.5-point underdogs this week and had the 9th-largest volume of plays in the league last year with an average of 58.9 per game, while the Bengals pass defense allowed the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% of 84.2% to running backs and the 2nd-highest rate of 0.41 receiving TDs per game to opposing running backs.
AI Analysis
Bucky Irving o14.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 17.21 (Over)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are -3.5-point underdogs and had the 9th-largest play volume in the league last year with an average of 58.9 plays per game, while the Cincinnati Bengals defense allowed the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game to running backs at 38.0 and had the highest average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch allowed when facing them.
AI Analysis
Chase Brown o24.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 28.7 (Over)
The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to have a 64.8% pass rate this week, with Chase Brown expected to average 5.3 targets, ranking him in the 97th percentile among running backs, while he posted a 14.5% target share last year, placing him in the 95th percentile, and had an average of 3.0 air yards per game, ranking in the 94th percentile, against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that allowed an average of 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing running backs.
AI Analysis
Mike Gesicki o20.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 26.71 (Over)
The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to have a 65.7% pass rate this week, while Mike Gesicki is expected to receive 3.4 targets, ranking in the 75th percentile among tight ends, and the Buccaneers defense allowed the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards and the most yards-after-the-catch to tight ends last year.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o274.5 Passing Yards (52%) Projection 299.84 (Over)
The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to be the most pass-heavy team this week with a 64.9% pass rate, and Joe Burrow is expected to average 38.1 pass attempts, ranking highly with a 69.8% Adjusted Completion% while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense allowed the 7th-most adjusted yards and the most yards-after-the-catch last year.
AI Analysis
Baker Mayfield o14.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 19.52 (Over)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to have a 44.7% run rate this week, ranking them as the 8th-most run-centric team, while averaging 58.9 run plays per game last year and facing a Bengals run defense that allowed 146.0 adjusted yards per game.
AI Analysis
Bucky Irving Score a Touchdown (Yes: 41%) Projection 0.57 (Yes)
The Buccaneers, who are 3.5-point underdogs, had the 9th largest play volume last season with an average of 58.9 plays per game, while the Bengals defense allowed the 10th-highest adjusted completion percentage of 84.2% to running backs and the 2nd-highest rate of 0.41 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing running backs.
AI Analysis
Bucky Irving o13.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 16.4 (Over)
The Buccaneers, 3.5-point underdogs, executed the 9th-largest volume of plays last year, while the Bengals defense allowed the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards to running backs and had the most yards-after-the-catch allowed.
AI Analysis
Bucky Irving o13.5 Receiving Yards (54%) Projection 16.4 (Over)
The Buccaneers are -3.5-point underdogs and ran an average of 58.9 plays per game last year, while the Bengals defense allowed the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards to RBs and had the highest average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch against opposing RBs.
AI Analysis
Chase Brown o23.5 Receiving Yards (54%) Projection 28.35 (Over)
The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to have a 64.9% pass rate this week, with Chase Brown expected to average 5.3 targets, ranking in the 96th percentile among running backs, and he had a 14.5% target share last year, placing him in the 95th percentile, while averaging 3.0 air yards per game, the 94th percentile among RBs, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense allowed the highest adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing running backs last year.
AI Analysis
Ja'Marr Chase o85.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 94.11 (Over)
The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to have a 64.9% pass rate this week, with Ja'Marr Chase expected to receive 11.4 targets and ranking in the 100th percentile among wide receivers, while also averaging 101.0 air yards per game and 82.0 adjusted yards per game last year.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o9.5 Rushing Yards (42%) Projection 11.58 (Over)
The Bengals are favored by 3.5 points this week, indicating a greater reliance on rushing, with Joe Burrow expected to contribute 12.6% to the run game, while Tampa Bay's defensive tackles ranked as the 3rd-worst against the run last year.
AI Analysis
Bucky Irving Score a Touchdown (Yes: 45%)
Sean Tucker is a game-time decision, leaving Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell as the primary running backs for Tampa against a Bengals team that struggled with tackling and allowed the most yards after catch last season.
AI Analysis
Bucky Irving Score a Touchdown (Yes: 43%) Projection 0.59 (Yes)
The Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs, ran the 9th-largest volume of plays last year with an average of 58.9 per game, while the Bengals' pass defense allowed the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% (84.2%) to running backs and 0.41 receiving touchdowns per game, the 2nd-highest rate in the league.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o267.5 Passing Yards (57%) Projection 303.38 (Over)
The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to have a 65.5% pass rate this week, with Joe Burrow expected to lead all quarterbacks in pass attempts at 38.3, while the Buccaneers defense allowed the 7th-most adjusted yards per game and the highest yards-after-the-catch last season.
AI Analysis
Bucky Irving Score a Touchdown (Yes: 43%)
With Mike Evans no longer on the team, Irving is expected to have a larger role in Tampa Bay's offense this season.
AI Analysis
Baker Mayfield o14.5 Rushing Yards (57%)
Baker Mayfield played through injury during the last season and recorded over 16 rushing yards in 10 games.
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