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Model Picks
13AI Analysis
Dalton Kincaid Score a Touchdown (Yes: 34%) Projection 0.41 (Yes)
Since the start of last season, Buffalo's passing stats are potentially underreported due to adverse weather conditions, while Dalton Kincaid has averaged 46.0 air yards per game, ranking in the 97th percentile for tight ends, and holds a 91st percentile WOPR with a score of 39.5; additionally, the Bills' offensive line is ranked 4th in the NFL for quarterback protection and Kincaid's Adjusted Catch% has improved from 79.8% to 84.5% this season.
AI Analysis
Josh Allen u238.5 Passing Yards (55%) Projection 231.27 (Under)
The Bills are a 7-point favorite this week, with projections indicating they will pass on 53.1% of their downs, play at the 11th-slowest pace averaging 26.95 seconds per play, and Josh Allen expected to throw 31.6 passes, the 8th-fewest among QBs, while opposing teams have attempted the 6th-fewest passes against the Los Angeles Chargers.
AI Analysis
Justin Herbert Score a Touchdown (Yes: 18%) Projection 0.22 (Yes)
The Chargers are heavy -7-point underdogs this week, indicating a likely extreme passing game, having called the 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL at 59.4 per game since last season, with Justin Herbert averaging 1.47 touchdowns per game, while Buffalo's cornerbacks have been the worst in the league against pass-catchers.
AI Analysis
Josh Allen u238.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 231.27 (Under)
The Bills are a 7-point favorite this week, projected to pass on 53.1% of downs, while their game is expected to be the 11th slowest in pace with an average of 26.95 seconds per play, and Josh Allen is forecasted to throw 31.6 passes, the 8th fewest among QBs, as opposing teams have made the 6th fewest passing attempts against the Chargers.
AI Analysis
Ladd McConkey o52.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 58.03 (Over)
The Chargers, a -7-point underdog, are expected to implement a heavy passing game, as they averaged 59.4 plays per game since last season, while the Bills' pass defense has struggled against wide receivers, allowing an average of 0.61 yards after the catch, ranking third highest in the NFL.
AI Analysis
Justin Herbert u222.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 196.66 (Under)
The Chargers are projected to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team this week with a 52.5% pass rate and are expected to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays with 62.3 plays, while Justin Herbert is forecasted to have the 5th-fewest pass attempts at 29.7 against a Bills defense allowing an average of 29.4 pass attempts per opposing quarterback.
AI Analysis
Justin Herbert o19.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 27.46 (Over)
The Los Angeles Chargers are the 5th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL with 41.2% adjusted run rate, have called the 4th-largest volume of plays at 59.4 per game since last season, played in the 10th-most low wind games, and Justin Herbert averages 4.3 rush attempts per game, while opposing offenses have averaged 127 adjusted rushing yards per game against the Buffalo Bills.
AI Analysis
DJ Moore o49.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 57.73 (Over)
Buffalo has faced significant weather conditions affecting passing stats, but improved conditions are expected this week; DJ Moore is projected to receive 7.2 targets and increase his target share to 24.0%, with 59.0 air yards per game, while the Bills' offensive line ranks 4th in the NFL for quarterback protection.
AI Analysis
Josh Allen o39.5 Rushing Yards (43%) Projection 44.57 (Over)
The Bills are 7-point favorites this week, with an offense that plays at the 10th-fastest pace in the league, and projections indicate Josh Allen is expected to have 8.6 carries, representing a 30.4% carry share, making him a top running quarterback with 42.0 adjusted yards per game.
AI Analysis
Ladd McConkey o53.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 58.03 (Over)
The Chargers are a -7-point underdog, implying an extreme passing game, while averaging 59.4 plays per game and facing a Bills pass defense that allows 0.61 yards-after-the-catch, ranking 3rd-most vulnerable.
AI Analysis
Josh Allen o32.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 44.57 (Over)
The Bills are a 7-point favorite this week, with their offense ranking 10th in pace at 28.04 seconds per play, and projections indicate Josh Allen will have an average of 8.6 carries, the highest among all QBs, while his projected carry share is expected to be 30.4%, significantly higher than his average of 20.9% since last season.
AI Analysis
Omarion Hampton o60.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 77.85 (Over)
The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to run on 47.5% of their plays, ranking 7th highest this week, and have the 4th largest average of 59.4 plays per game since last season, while facing a Buffalo Bills defense that allows the 10th most adjusted rushing yards per game and has the 2nd worst defensive ends in run defense.
AI Analysis
Dalton Kincaid Score a Touchdown (Yes: 34%) Projection 0.47 (Yes)
The Bills are currently projected to have the 8th-highest pass rate in the league at 64.3%, play at the 10th-fastest pace with 28.04 seconds per play, and Dalton Kincaid is expected to receive 19.4% of red zone targets while averaging 46.0 air yards per game, ranking in the 97th percentile for tight ends.
AI Analysis
Ladd McConkey Score a Touchdown (Yes: 31%) Projection 0.41 (Yes)
The Chargers are a -7-point underdog this week, indicating a strong passing game strategy, while averaging 59.4 plays per game since last season and facing a Buffalo CB corps rated the worst in the league.
AI Analysis
Justin Herbert o19.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 27.46 (Over)
The Los Angeles Chargers are the 5th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL at 41.2% and have the 4th-largest play volume, averaging 59.4 plays per game since last season, while also participating in the 10th-most low wind games, impacting their passing efficiency; quarterback Justin Herbert averages 4.3 rush attempts per game, ranking in the 88th percentile among QBs, and opposing offenses have gained an average of 127 adjusted yards per game against the Buffalo Bills defense.
AI Analysis
Quentin Johnston o35.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 41.82 (Over)
The Chargers, as -7-point underdogs, imply an extreme passing game script, having called the 4th-most plays in the NFL at an average of 59.4 per game since last season; Quentin Johnston has run a route on 85.8% of passing plays, ranking in the 83rd percentile and accumulating 69.0 air yards per game, placing him in the 81st percentile, with 44.0 adjusted yards per game, ranking in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Omarion Hampton o58.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 77.85 (Over)
The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to run on 47.5% of their chances, ranking 7th highest this week, with an average of 59.4 plays per game since last season, and their matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who allow 127 adjusted rushing yards per game and have the 2nd-worst run defense among defensive ends, suggests increased running volume due to favorable conditions.
AI Analysis
Quentin Johnston o35.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 41.82 (Over)
The Chargers, heavy -7-point underdogs, are expected to rely on an extreme passing game, having one of the highest play volumes in the NFL at 59.4 plays per game, with Quentin Johnston running routes on 85.8% of passing plays and ranking in the 81st percentile in air yards at 69.0 per game.
AI Analysis
James Cook III u79.5 Rushing Yards (52%) Projection 70.61 (Under)
The predictive model indicates the Buffalo Bills will be the 8th-least run-heavy team with a 35.7% run rate, while James Cook ranks low in generating extra yardage at 2.24 yards-after-contact, and opposing offenses have achieved the 9th-fewest adjusted rushing yards against the Los Angeles Chargers, whose defensive tackles are ranked 3rd-best in run defense.
AI Analysis
Justin Herbert o19.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 26.27 (Over)
The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 47.5% of their chances, ranking 7th in the league, while averaging 59.4 plays per game since last season, and facing windier conditions that may reduce passing efficiency.
AI Analysis
Omarion Hampton o59.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 77.85 (Over)
The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to run on 47.5% of their chances, ranking 7th in the NFL, while averaging 59.4 plays per game and ranking 10th in 'low wind' games since last season, facing a Buffalo Bills defense that allows the 10th-most adjusted rushing yards at 127 per game and features the 2nd-worst run defense among defensive ends.
AI Analysis
Khalil Shakir Score a Touchdown (Yes: 35%) Projection 0.44 (Yes)
The Bills are currently projected as the 8th-most pass-focused team with a 64.3% pass rate, have the 10th-fastest offense at 28.04 seconds per play, and Khalil Shakir leads with a 21.6% Red Zone Target Share, while their offensive line ranks 4th in the league for quarterback protection.
AI Analysis
Josh Allen u249.5 Passing Yards (60%) Projection 235.51 (Under)
The Bills are 7-point favorites this week, projected to pass on 53.1% of downs, while opposing QBs average just 29.6 attempts per game against the Chargers, who have allowed the 6th-fewest passing yards since last season.
AI Analysis
Oronde Gadsden Score a Touchdown (Yes: 24%)
With David Njoku and Charlie Kolar out, Oronde Gadsden is expected to increase his playing time after scoring a touchdown in Week 2, while Ladd McConkey is managing a rib injury and the passing offense has struggled overall.
AI Analysis
Omarion Hampton o57.5 Rushing Yards (53%)
Omarion Hampton is expected to rush over 60 yards against the Bills, given his recent performance and Buffalo's improving run defense.
AI Analysis
Ladd McConkey o54.5 Receiving Yards (54%)
The Bills allow the fifth-highest EPA per dropback in the second half, and McConkey, with 14.6 yards per reception and a 13.8 aDoT, has a 23.9% share of the team's air yards and a 9.16 yards per target allowed by Buffalo to opposing wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Omarion Hampton Score a Touchdown (Yes: 52%)
Hampton has averaged 3.2 yards after contact per attempt, has a 103.8 PFF Elusive Rating, received 66% of the team's carries, and scored two touchdowns on rushes inside the 10-yard line while handling 50% of the red zone touches.
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