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12:00 PM
New England
Patriots · Away
Jacksonville
Jaguars · Home
Model Picks
14AI Analysis
Hunter Henry Score a Touchdown (Yes: 28%) Projection 0.43 (Yes)
The New England Patriots are underdogs at -3 points this week, projected to have the heaviest passing offense in the league near the end zone with a 76.2% red zone pass rate, while opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars since last season; Hunter Henry averages 39.0 air yards per game and ranks in the 90th percentile for tight ends, with an 86th percentile Weighted Opportunity Rating at 36.5.
AI Analysis
Romeo Doubs Score a Touchdown (Yes: 27%) Projection 0.39 (Yes)
The New England Patriots are currently underdogs with a -3-point disadvantage, projected to have a 76.2% red zone pass rate, while opposing quarterbacks average 36.4 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars, and Romeo Doubs ranks in the 92nd percentile for red zone target share at 22.4% and in the 81st percentile for air yards at 69.0 per game.
AI Analysis
Parker Washington Score a Touchdown (Yes: 37%) Projection 0.52 (Yes)
Since the start of last season, the New England Patriots defense has allowed a 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate, ranking 6th in the NFL, while permitting the 3rd-fewest rushing touchdowns at 0.58 per game.
AI Analysis
Drake Maye o25.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 29.46 (Over)
The New England Patriots are expected to run the ball on 46.4% of their plays this week, placing them 10th among all teams.
AI Analysis
Trevor Lawrence o16.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 20.28 (Over)
The Jaguars are 3-point favorites this week, while New England's defensive tackle corps is projected to be the 6th-worst in the NFL for run defense.
AI Analysis
Trevor Lawrence o223.5 Passing Yards (52%) Projection 240.5 (Over)
The Jaguars are projected to pass 59.0% of the time this week, ranking 10th, with Trevor Lawrence averaging 205.0 adjusted yards per game and a 67.6% adjusted completion rate this year, while the New England Patriots defense has allowed a 73.0% adjusted completion rate to opponents since last season.
AI Analysis
Bhayshul Tuten u54.5 Rushing Yards (54%) Projection 48.92 (Under)
The game is projected to have the 4th-lowest number of plays run this week at 125.0, with opposing teams averaging 93.0 adjusted yards per game against the Patriots defense since last season.
AI Analysis
Romeo Doubs o42.5 Receiving Yards (52%) Projection 49.12 (Over)
The Patriots, facing a -3 point disadvantage, may focus more on passing against a Jaguars defense that allows an average of 36.4 pass attempts per game, while Romeo Doubs ranks in the 81st percentile for air yards and has a 47.5 WOPR, placing him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Parker Washington o61.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 72.09 (Over)
Since the start of last season, the New England Patriots pass defense has allowed a 67.1% Adjusted Completion Rate against opposing wide receivers and an average of 0.46 yards-after-the-catch, ranking 7th and 10th in the NFL, respectively.
AI Analysis
TreVeyon Henderson o39.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 60.8 (Over)
The New England Patriots are projected to run on 46.4% of their plays, ranking 10th among all teams this week.
AI Analysis
Bhayshul Tuten o9.5 Receiving Yards (52%) Projection 12.02 (Over)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL with 62.7% adjusted for context, while the New England Patriots' pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% of 85.3% to running backs since last season.
AI Analysis
TreVeyon Henderson o9.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 13.72 (Over)
The New England Patriots are 3-point underdogs against the Jaguars, who have allowed the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game to running backs and rank 2nd in the league for opposing quarterbacks' pass attempts, while the Patriots' offensive line is the 4th-best in protecting the passer.
AI Analysis
TreVeyon Henderson o1.5 Receptions Made (51%) Projection 2.07 (Over)
The New England Patriots are underdogs with a -3-point disadvantage, suggesting a greater emphasis on passing against the Jaguars defense, which has faced the 2nd-most pass attempts per game since last season, while the Patriots' offensive line ranks 4th in the league for protecting the passer.
AI Analysis
Romeo Doubs o39.5 Receiving Yards (58%) Projection 49.12 (Over)
The Patriots are underdogs by 3 points this week, indicating a shift towards a passing strategy, while opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.4 attempts per game against the Jaguars since last season; Romeo Doubs ranks in the 81st percentile for air yards with 69.0 yards per game, has a WOPR in the 75th percentile at 47.5, and averages 45.0 adjusted yards per game, placing him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
AI Analysis
Brenton Strange o27.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 39.28 (Over)
Brenton Strange has a 74.1% Route Participation Rate, averaging 5.3 targets, ranking in the 84th percentile among TEs, while generating 36.0 air yards per game and 34.0 adjusted yards per game, against a Patriots pass defense with a 77.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus tight ends.
AI Analysis
Bhayshul Tuten u54.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 48.92 (Under)
This game is projected to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays this week at 125.0, with opposing teams averaging 93.0 adjusted rushing yards per game against the Patriots defense since last season.
AI Analysis
Trevor Lawrence o224.5 Passing Yards (52%) Projection 235.71 (Over)
Trevor Lawrence has been a top NFL quarterback since last season, averaging 205.0 adjusted yards per game with a 67.6% adjusted completion rate and improved pass-game efficiency at 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target, while the New England Patriots defense has allowed a 73.0% adjusted completion rate to opponents.
AI Analysis
Parker Washington o59.5 Receiving Yards (56%) Projection 73.72 (Over)
The Jaguars are projected to pass 59.0% of the time, ranking 10th highest this week, while the New England Patriots pass defense has allowed a 67.1% Adjusted Completion Rate and an average of 0.46 yards-after-the-catch since last season.
AI Analysis
Bhayshul Tuten u54.5 Rushing Yards (52%) Projection 48.92 (Under)
The game is projected to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays this week at 125.0, with opposing teams averaging 93.0 adjusted rushing yards per game against the Patriots defense since last season.
AI Analysis
Parker Washington o59.5 Receiving Yards (56%) Projection 73.72 (Over)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL at 62.7%, while the New England Patriots pass defense has allowed a 67.1% adjusted completion rate and an average of 0.46 yards-after-the-catch to opposing wide receivers since the start of last season.
AI Analysis
Parker Washington o59.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 73.72 (Over)
The Jaguars are projected to pass on 59.0% of their plays, ranking 10th this week, while the Patriots' pass defense has allowed a 67.1% Adjusted Completion Rate and 0.46 yards-after-the-catch, ranking 7th and 10th in the NFL respectively.
AI Analysis
Trevor Lawrence Score a Touchdown (Yes: 24%)
Under head coach Liam Coen, Trevor Lawrence emerged as a dual-threat QB in 2025, rushing for nearly 360 yards and nine touchdowns, ranking third among QBs in red zone rushing.
AI Analysis
TreVeyon Henderson o38.5 Rushing Yards (53%)
TreVeyon Henderson made his season debut for New England in Week 2, playing 60% of the snaps and recording 16 carries for 76 yards, with expectations for increased involvement in Week 3 against a Jaguars run defense rated 28th in run stop win rate.
AI Analysis
Hunter Henry Score a Touchdown (Yes: 28%)
Hunter Henry is projected by THE BLITZ to provide high value with a price of 3.05x, is playing 92% of the snaps, and led the team in routes and targets last week, making him a strong option in the New England passing game.
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