Model Picks
14AI Analysis
Marcus Mariota u212.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 201.85 (Under)
The Washington Commanders are projected to have a 55.1% pass rate and call 62.5 offensive plays this week, ranking them as the 9th-least pass-focused team and the 8th-lowest in play calls among all teams.
AI Analysis
Stefon Diggs o41.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 53.62 (Over)
The Washington Commanders are likely to rely more on running plays with backup QB Marcus Mariota, and despite being underdogs at -3.5 points, they may maintain a higher passing focus due to opposing quarterbacks averaging 36.1 attempts per game against the Colts defense.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o9.5 Rushing Yards (58%) Projection 19.56 (Over)
The Indianapolis Colts, favored by 3.5 points, are projected to run 46.0% of the time and call 65.1 offensive plays, facing a Washington Commanders defense that has allowed the 7th-most adjusted rushing yards since last season.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o11.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 19.61 (Over)
The Colts, favored by 3.5 points, are projected to rush 46.0% of the time and run 65.1 offensive plays in their upcoming game against the Washington Commanders, who have allowed the 7th-most adjusted rushing yards since last season.
AI Analysis
Tyler Warren o46.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 49.65 (Over)
The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 65.1 offensive plays in their upcoming game, ranking 7th in the league, while their offensive line is rated the best in protection since last season, contrasting with the Washington Commanders' defense, which has allowed the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game to tight ends and has the worst efficiency against them, with their safeties ranking 6th-worst in pass coverage.
AI Analysis
Jacory Croskey-Merritt o59.5 Rushing Yards (75%) Projection 63.35 (Over)
The projections indicate the Commanders are expected to run on 44.9% of their downs, ranking 9th highest this week, while the game is anticipated to have the 5th highest total plays at 127.6, and Indianapolis's safeties have been rated as the 3rd worst in the league since last season.
AI Analysis
Jacory Croskey-Merritt o59.5 Rushing Yards (48%) Projection 63.35 (Over)
The Commanders are projected to run on 44.9% of their downs, ranking 9th highest among all teams, with the game expected to have 127.6 plays, the 5th-highest this week, while the Colts' safeties are graded as the 3rd-worst in the league at stopping the run.
AI Analysis
Josh Downs o59.5 Receiving Yards (58%) Projection 64.74 (Over)
The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 65.1 offensive plays this week, ranking 7th among all teams, while Josh Downs is expected to receive 7.8 targets, placing him in the 86th percentile for wide receivers, and he has accumulated 20.1% of his team's air yards since last season, as the Colts' offensive line is ranked best in the league for quarterback protection, while the Washington Commanders have the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% against wide receivers at 68.9%.
AI Analysis
Marcus Mariota u27.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 21.24 (Under)
The Washington Commanders are expected to call only 62.5 offensive plays in their upcoming game, ranking 8th-lowest in the league, primarily due to the absence of their starting QB and a strategy shift towards fewer passing plays.
AI Analysis
Josh Downs Score a Touchdown (Yes: 34%) Projection 0.45 (Yes)
The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 65.1 offensive plays this week, while Josh Downs has a 30.8% Red Zone Target Share and ranks in the 75th percentile for air yards among wide receivers, as their offensive line is rated best in pass protection, contrasting with the Washington Commanders' pass defense which has the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion percentage (68.9%) against wide receivers since last season.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones Score a Touchdown (Yes: 19%) Projection 0.27 (Yes)
The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 65.1 offensive plays this week, ranking 7th in the league, supported by the best offensive line in quarterback protection, while the Washington Commanders' defense has allowed a 72.8% adjusted completion rate and 2.20 passing touchdowns per game, ranking them among the worst in the NFL.
AI Analysis
Josh Downs o59.5 Receiving Yards (56%) Projection 64.74 (Over)
The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 65.1 offensive plays this week, with Josh Downs expected to receive 7.8 targets, ranking in the 86th percentile for wide receivers, while he has accounted for 20.1% of his team's air yards since last season and averages 38.0 adjusted yards per game, as the Washington Commanders' pass defense has the 3rd-highest adjusted completion rate at 68.9% against wide receivers since last season.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones Score a Touchdown (Yes: 20%) Projection 0.27 (Yes)
The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 65.1 offensive plays, ranking 7th this week, while their offensive line is the league's best in pass protection, and the Washington Commanders defense has allowed a 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate and 2.20 passing touchdowns per game, ranking 7th and highest in the NFL respectively, with their safeties grading as the 6th-worst in pass coverage.
AI Analysis
Daniel Jones o3.5 Rushing Attempts (42%) Projection 4.37 (Over)
The Colts are projected to run 46.0% of the time and are expected to call 65.1 offensive plays, while Daniel Jones is forecasted to contribute 14.5% of the run game.
AI Analysis
Jonathan Taylor u24.5 Receiving Yards (68%) Projection 18.68 (Under)
The Colts, favored by 3.5 points, are projected to pass on 54% of their downs, ranking 6th-lowest this week, and have averaged 55.2 plays per game since last season.
AI Analysis
Jacory Croskey-Merritt o49.5 Rushing Yards (61%) Projection 63.39 (Over)
Projections indicate the Commanders will run on 44.9% of their downs, ranking 9th among all teams this week, while Indianapolis's safeties have been the 3rd-worst in the league at stopping the run since last season.
AI Analysis
Josh Downs o59.5 Receiving Yards (58%) Projection 64.56 (Over)
The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 65.1 offensive plays this week, ranking 7th among all teams, while Josh Downs is expected to receive 7.8 targets, placing him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers and ranking 75th percentile for air yards since last season; the Colts' offensive line is the best in quarterback protection, and the Washington Commanders' pass defense has the 3rd-highest adjusted completion percentage against wide receivers at 68.9%.
AI Analysis
Keenan Allen Score a Touchdown (Yes: 26%)
Keenan Allen had nine targets last week, including two red zone targets, and could benefit from Alec Pierce's potential absence due to injury, while Shane Steichen has a strong record of 8-2 to the Over as a favorite of over three points.
AI Analysis
Tyler Warren Score a Touchdown (Yes: 34%)
Indianapolis tight end Tyler Warren has scored in the first two games of the season and is a favored target for quarterback Jones against a Washington defense that has allowed five touchdowns to tight ends in three games.
AI Analysis
Jonathan Taylor o89.5 Rushing Yards (53%)
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor ranks sixth in rushing yards after three weeks, with projections estimating he will gain between 86 to 100 yards in the upcoming game against a weakened Washington run defense.
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