NFL picks
Cincinnati
Bengals · Away
Miami
Dolphins · Home
Model Picks
8AI Analysis
Chase Brown Score a Touchdown (Yes: 60%) Projection 0.75 (Yes)
The predictive model indicates the Bengals are expected to pass on 62.8% of their plays, rank 4th in red zone pass rate at 62.6%, run an average of 58.5 plays per game, and project Chase Brown's red zone target share to increase from 6.2% to 14.9% this week, with his adjusted completion percentage improving from 81.1% to 95.6%.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o252.5 Passing Yards (55%) Projection 274.22 (Over)
The predictive model anticipates the Bengals to pass on 62.7% of their plays, with Joe Burrow expected to attempt 36.0 passes, while averaging 304.0 adjusted yards per game and holding a 71.6% Adjusted Completion%, ranking him among the most accurate and efficient QBs in the NFL.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow Score a Touchdown (Yes: 16%) Projection 0.23 (Yes)
The predictive model forecasts the Bengals to pass on 62.7% of their plays, expected to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the league in the red zone with a 62.9% pass rate, anticipating Joe Burrow to attempt 36.0 passes this week, ranking 8th among quarterbacks, while he has a 71.6% Adjusted Completion Percentage and averages 0.25 rushing touchdowns per game, placing him in the 92nd percentile among QBs.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o252.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 274.32 (Over)
The predictive model forecasts the Bengals to pass on 62.7% of their plays, with Joe Burrow expected to attempt 36.0 passes, while he has an adjusted yardage of 304.0 per game and a 71.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow Score a Touchdown (Yes: 13%) Projection 0.22 (Yes)
The predictive model anticipates the Bengals will pass on 62.7% of their plays, ranking 3rd highest this week, with a 62.9% red zone pass rate, while Joe Burrow is projected to attempt 36.0 passes, ranking 8th among quarterbacks, and has an adjusted completion percentage of 71.6% and averages 0.25 rushing touchdowns per game.
AI Analysis
Malik Willis u192.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 175.12 (Under)
The model projects the Miami Dolphins as the second-least pass-heavy offense this week with a 53.0% pass rate and the fewest offensive plays at 59.6, while Malik Willis is expected to have the lowest average pass attempts at 28.4 and ranks in the 23rd percentile with 160.0 adjusted yards per game.
AI Analysis
Chase Brown u69.5 Rushing Yards (59%) Projection 61.53 (Under)
The predictive model forecasts the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-least run-heavy team this week with a 37.3% run rate, while the game is projected to have the lowest volume of plays at 120.1, and Miami's linebackers are ranked 7th in run defense efficiency.
AI Analysis
Ollie Gordon II o45.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 48.21 (Over)
The predictive model forecasts the Miami Dolphins as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense this week with a 47.0% run rate, while the Cincinnati Bengals defense has the 3rd-worst efficiency against running games and their safeties rank 28th in run defense.
AI Analysis
Malik Washington o41.5 Receiving Yards (58%) Projection 48.8 (Over)
The Dolphins are a 7-point underdog this week, suggesting a high passing game script, while opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have the 7th-worst cornerback corps in defending pass-catchers.
AI Analysis
Malik Washington Score a Touchdown (Yes: 24%) Projection 0.35 (Yes)
The Dolphins are 7-point underdogs this week, suggesting a heavy passing game script, as opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Bengals, while teams have rushed for the 10th-fewest touchdowns (0.75 per game) against them this season.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o249.5 Passing Yards (56%) Projection 274.22 (Over)
The predictive model indicates that the Bengals will pass on 62.7% of their plays, with Joe Burrow expected to attempt 36.0 passes this week, have a season average of 304.0 adjusted yards per game, a 71.6% adjusted completion rate, and 7.74 adjusted yards-per-target.
AI Analysis
Malik Washington o39.5 Receiving Yards (58%) Projection 47.48 (Over)
The Dolphins are 7-point underdogs this week, suggesting a heavy passing game, while opposing quarterbacks average 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals, whose cornerbacks rank as the 7th-worst in the league.
AI Analysis
Malik Willis o29.5 Rushing Yards (60%) Projection 35.25 (Over)
The predictive model projects the Miami Dolphins as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense this week with a 47.0% run rate, while Malik Willis is expected to have 6.8 carries, the 4th-most among QBs, and a 24.3% carry share; additionally, the Cincinnati Bengals defense ranks 3rd-worst in efficiency against running games, allowing 5.14 adjusted yards-per-carry, and their safeties are 28th in run defense.
AI Analysis
Greg Dulcich u2.5 Receptions Made (45%) Projection 2.42 (Under)
The Dolphins are projected to have the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense this week with a 53.0% pass rate and the fewest offensive plays at 59.6, while averaging 50.2 plays per game this season and ranking 8th-worst in the NFL for offensive line performance.
AI Analysis
Ollie Gordon II o10.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 12.89 (Over)
The Dolphins are a 7-point underdog this week, with opposing quarterbacks averaging 37.2 pass attempts against the Bengals, who have allowed the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game to RBs and rank 2nd in adjusted yards-per-target allowed to RBs since last season, while their safeties are among the least efficient in covering receivers.
AI Analysis
Chase Brown u69.5 Rushing Yards (59%) Projection 61.55 (Under)
The predictive model forecasts the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-least run-heavy team this week with a 37.3% run rate and projects the game to have the lowest play volume at 120.1 plays, while Miami's linebackers are ranked 7th-best in the league for run stopping.
AI Analysis
Malik Willis o5.5 Rushing Attempts (50%) Projection 6.6 (Over)
The predictive model indicates the Miami Dolphins will have a 47.0% run rate, with Malik Willis projected to have 6.8 carries, a 24.3% carry share, while the Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank 28th in run defense.
AI Analysis
Greg Dulcich u2.5 Receptions Made (46%) Projection 2.42 (Under)
The model predicts that the Miami Dolphins will have the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense this week with a 53.0% pass rate and will call the fewest offensive plays at 59.6, while also averaging the fewest plays in the league at 50.2 per game, and their offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL for quarterback protection.
AI Analysis
Chase Brown u16.5 Rushing Attempts (52%) Projection 14.77 (Under)
The predictive model indicates that the Cincinnati Bengals are expected to have a 37.3% run rate, ranking them as the 3rd-least run-heavy team this week, while the game is projected to have the lowest volume of plays at 120.1, with Miami's linebackers being the 7th-best in the league for stopping the run.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o8.5 Rushing Yards (51%) Projection 10.03 (Over)
The Bengals are favored by 7 points, indicating a strong rushing game script, while Joe Burrow has improved his adjusted yards per game on the ground from 5.0 to 10.0 and his adjusted yards per carry from 3.53 to 4.32, with opposing teams averaging 124 adjusted rushing yards per game against the Dolphins defense.
AI Analysis
Malik Washington Score a Touchdown (Yes: 23%) Projection 0.37 (Yes)
The Dolphins are 7-point underdogs this week, suggesting a high passing game volume, as opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Bengals, the 10th-most in the NFL, while opposing teams have scored the 10th-fewest rushing touchdowns at 0.75 per game against the Bengals.
AI Analysis
Ollie Gordon II o45.5 Rushing Yards (49%) Projection 48.47 (Over)
The Miami Dolphins are projected to have a 47.0% run rate, making them the 2nd-most run-heavy offense this week, while the Cincinnati Bengals defense ranks 3rd-worst in run efficiency and their safeties are 28th in run defense.
AI Analysis
DM Dohnte Meyers Score a Touchdown (Yes: 29%)
Concerns exist regarding Ja'Marr Chase's concussion protocol and Tee Higgins' multiple injuries, but the rookie receiver has strong potential in an elite matchup, having previously secured nine targets and 82 yards while playing opposite Higgins.
AI Analysis
Joe Burrow o224.5 Passing Yards (60%) Projection 275.85 (Over)
The predictive model forecasts the Bengals will pass on 62.7% of their plays, with Joe Burrow expected to attempt 36.0 passes, while he has an adjusted yards per game of 304.0, an adjusted completion percentage of 71.6%, and an adjusted yards-per-target of 7.74 this season.
AI Analysis
Greg Dulcich o24.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 27.23 (Over)
The Dolphins are a 7-point underdog this week against the Bengals, who allow the most adjusted receiving yards per game to tight ends, while Greg Dulcich has a 67.9% route participation and ranks highly in yards-after-the-catch.
AI Analysis
Chase Brown u67.5 Rushing Yards (55%) Projection 61.2 (Under)
The predictive model forecasts the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-least run-heavy team with a 37.3% run rate and anticipates the lowest volume of plays this week at 120.1, while Miami's linebackers rank as the 7th-best in stopping the run.
AI Analysis
Greg Dulcich o24.5 Receiving Yards (56%) Projection 27.23 (Over)
The Dolphins are 7-point underdogs this week, reflecting a high expected passing game, as opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Bengals, while Greg Dulcich's route participation is lower this season and he ranks highly in yards-after-the-catch, with the Bengals' defense allowing the most adjusted receiving yards per game to tight ends.
AI Analysis
Ollie Gordon II o9.5 Receiving Yards (56%) Projection 12.75 (Over)
The Dolphins are a 7-point underdog this week, with opposing quarterbacks averaging 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Bengals, who give up the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game to RBs and have a weak pass defense, allowing 7.40 adjusted yards-per-target to RBs and ranking 7th-worst in safety coverage.
AI Analysis
Ollie Gordon II o39.5 Rushing Yards (58%) Projection 48.47 (Over)
The Miami Dolphins are projected to have a 47.0% run rate this week, making them the 2nd-most run-heavy offense, while the Cincinnati Bengals defense is ranked 3rd-worst in efficiency against running games and has the 28th-worst safety corps in run defense.
AI Analysis
Malik Washington o39.5 Receiving Yards (60%) Projection 49.13 (Over)
The Dolphins are a 7-point underdog this week, suggesting a high passing game volume, while opposing quarterbacks average 37.2 pass attempts against the Bengals, who have the 7th-worst cornerback performance in the league.
AI Analysis
Ollie Gordon II o39.5 Rushing Yards (58%) Projection 48.47 (Over)
The Miami Dolphins are projected to have a 47.0% run rate this week, making them the 2nd-most run-heavy offense, while the Cincinnati Bengals defense has the 3rd-worst efficiency against rushing, allowing 5.14 adjusted yards-per-carry and ranking 28th in run defense among safety corps.
AI Analysis
Greg Dulcich o24.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 27.24 (Over)
The Dolphins are 7-point underdogs this week, suggesting a strong passing game, while opposing quarterbacks face the Bengals' defense that allows an average of 37.2 pass attempts per game, and Greg Dulcich has a 67.9% route participation rate this season, compared to 49.2% last season, with an impressive 1.14 yards-after-the-catch since last season, as the Bengals give up the most adjusted receiving yards per game (97.0) to tight ends.
AI Analysis
Ollie Gordon II o9.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 12.75 (Over)
The Dolphins are 7-point underdogs this week, reflecting a likely heavy passing game, while the Bengals defense has allowed an average of 37.2 pass attempts per game and ranks 3rd in adjusted receiving yards per game against RBs, with a 7.40 adjusted yards-per-target against RBs, and their safeties are among the 7th worst in coverage efficiency.
AI Analysis
Ollie Gordon II o39.5 Rushing Yards (59%) Projection 48.76 (Over)
The Miami Dolphins are projected to have a 47.1% run rate, ranking as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense this week, while the Cincinnati Bengals defense has the 3rd-worst efficiency against running games and their safeties are ranked 28th in run defense.
AI Analysis
Malik Willis o29.5 Rushing Yards (59%) Projection 34.94 (Over)
The predictive model ranks the Miami Dolphins as having the 2nd-highest run rate of 47.1% this week, expects Malik Willis to have 6.8 carries (4th-most among QBs), predicts a 24.0% carry share for him despite his 18.4% average this year, and notes the Cincinnati Bengals' defense ranks 3rd-worst in run efficiency with 5.14 adjusted yards-per-carry and their safeties are 28th in run defense.
AI Analysis
Ollie Gordon II o9.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 12.75 (Over)
The Dolphins are 7-point underdogs this week, reflecting a likely passing game, while opposing quarterbacks average 37.2 attempts per game against the Bengals, who allow the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards to RBs and have the worst efficiency in adjusted yards-per-target to RBs, along with a safety corps ranked 7th-worst in receiver coverage.
AI Analysis
Mike Gesicki Score a Touchdown (Yes: 28%)
Playable up to 29%.
See Every Model's Pick
Unlock the full pick breakdown, win-rates, and real-time alerts for every future game.