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Model Picks
11AI Analysis
Jalon Daniels u37.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 26.6 (Under)
Projections indicate this game will have the 2nd-smallest number of plays at 124.5, while Pittsburgh's linebackers are projected as the 2nd-best in the NFL for run defense.
AI Analysis
Jalon Daniels o176.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 187.2 (Over)
The Steelers defense allows an average of 5.33 yards-after-the-catch, ranking 5th-worst in the NFL, and their safeties are the 2nd-worst in quarterback pressure.
AI Analysis
DK Metcalf o51.5 Receiving Yards (54%) Projection 56.14 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to have a 60.4% pass rate, ranking them 6th in pass orientation, while DK Metcalf is estimated to receive 7.8 targets, averaging 93.0 air yards per game, with the Steelers' offensive line rated as the 5th best in the league and Metcalf showing improved efficiency with 2.89 yards-after-the-catch.
AI Analysis
Emeka Egbuka o36.5 Receiving Yards (52%) Projection 44.2 (Over)
The Steelers pass defense has allowed an average of 4.07 yards-after-the-catch, ranking 9th in the NFL, while their safeties have been the 2nd-worst in the league at pressuring the quarterback.
AI Analysis
DK Metcalf o49.5 Receiving Yards (56%) Projection 53.71 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are expected to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team this week with a 60.4% pass rate, while DK Metcalf is projected to have 7.8 targets, ranking in the 85th percentile among WRs, and has improved his air yards from 74.0 to 93.0 per game, while the Steelers' offensive line is ranked 5th in the league.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth Score a Touchdown (Yes: 27%) Projection 0.3 (Yes)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team this week with a 60.4% pass rate, and they are the most pass-focused team near the end zone with a 65.1% rate, while Pat Freiermuth boasts a top-tier 21.7% Red Zone Target Rate and an improved performance in air yards and Weighted Opportunity Rating this season.
AI Analysis
Bucky Irving u64.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 60.94 (Under)
The game is projected to have 124.5 plays, the 2nd-smallest of the week, while Pittsburgh's linebackers are projected as the 2nd-best in the NFL for run defense.
AI Analysis
Emeka Egbuka o39.5 Receiving Yards (47%) Projection 44.2 (Over)
The Steelers pass defense allows an average of 4.07 yards-after-the-catch, ranking 9th in the NFL, and their safeties are rated as the 2nd-worst in the league for quarterback pressure.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o0.5 Rushing Yards (52%) Projection 13.01 (Over)
Windy weather conditions, such as a projected 13-mph wind, typically lead to decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased ground attack volume, with 50% expected at Novig.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers u229.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 209.28 (Under)
The Steelers are projected to run 61.8 plays this week, the second-fewest in the slate, while opposing QBs have a 67.3% adjusted completion rate against the Buccaneers, whose safeties are ranked 7th in covering pass-catchers.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth Score a Touchdown (Yes: 24%) Projection 0.3 (Yes)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to have a 60.4% pass rate, ranking them as the 6th-most pass-oriented team this week, with Pat Freiermuth showing significant improvement in air yards and Weighted Opportunity Rating compared to last season.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth o35.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 38.16 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to have a 60.4% pass rate this week, ranking them as the 6th-most pass-oriented team, while Pat Freiermuth is expected to receive 5.4 targets, ranking in the 81st percentile among tight ends, and he has averaged 43.0 air yards per game this season.
AI Analysis
Jalon Daniels o176.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 187.34 (Over)
The Steelers defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing an average of 5.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) and their safeties are the 2nd-worst in the league at pressuring the quarterback.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers o0.5 Rushing Yards (50%) Projection 13.01 (Over)
Windy conditions, such as a projected 13-mph wind, typically lead to decreased passing effectiveness and air attack volume, while increasing ground volume, with a 50% occurrence rate at Novig.
AI Analysis
Cade Otton o29.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 33.66 (Over)
Cade Otton is projected to receive 5.0 targets this week, with an average of 31.0 air yards per game and a 36.8 WOPR, alongside 28.0 adjusted receiving yards per game and 7.28 yards-after-the-catch this season.
AI Analysis
Bucky Irving o14.5 Receiving Yards (43%) Projection 15.12 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs, ranking 8th in the league, and has surrendered an average of 9.36 yards-after-the-catch, the 2nd-most in the league, while their safeties rank as the 2nd-worst in quarterback pressure.
AI Analysis
Emeka Egbuka o39.5 Receiving Yards (50%) Projection 46.56 (Over)
The Steelers pass defense allows an average of 4.07 yards-after-the-catch, ranking 9th-most in the NFL, while their safeties are the 2nd-worst in the league in terms of pressuring the quarterback.
AI Analysis
Jalon Daniels u37.5 Rushing Yards (53%) Projection 26.58 (Under)
Projections indicate that this game will have the 2nd-smallest number of plays at 124.5, while Pittsburgh's linebackers are ranked as the 2nd-best in the NFL for run defense, with a performance rate of 53% at ProphetX.
AI Analysis
Bucky Irving o10.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 14.93 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs, ranking 8th in the league, and has the 2nd-most yards-after-the-catch at 9.36, while their safeties rank as the 2nd-worst in terms of pressure on quarterbacks.
AI Analysis
DK Metcalf o49.5 Receiving Yards (58%) Projection 56.14 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team this week with a 60.4% pass rate, while DK Metcalf is expected to receive 7.8 targets, averaging 93.0 air yards per game, and has improved his YAC to 2.89 this year.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth Score a Touchdown (Yes: 24%) Projection 0.29 (Yes)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team this week with a 60.4% pass rate, and Pat Freiermuth ranks among the top tight ends with a 21.7% Red Zone Target Rate and improved statistics in air yards and Weighted Opportunity Rating this season.
AI Analysis
Emeka Egbuka o39.5 Receiving Yards (48%) Projection 46.56 (Over)
The Steelers pass defense allows an average of 4.07 yards-after-the-catch, ranking 9th-worst in the NFL, while their safeties rank 2nd-worst in quarterback pressure.
AI Analysis
DK Metcalf o49.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 53.71 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to have a 60.4% pass rate this week, while DK Metcalf is expected to receive an average of 7.8 targets, demonstrating improvement from his previous year's 74.0 air yards per game to 93.0 this year, along with a rise in yards-after-the-catch from 0.0% to 2.89.
AI Analysis
Bucky Irving o10.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 15.14 (Over)
In 2023, the Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs, ranking 8th in the NFL, and has yielded an average of 9.36 yards-after-the-catch, the 2nd-most in the league, while their safeties have been the 2nd-worst group in terms of pressuring the quarterback.
AI Analysis
Cade Otton o29.5 Receiving Yards (55%) Projection 33.71 (Over)
Cade Otton is projected to have 5.0 targets in this week's game, ranking in the 79th percentile among tight ends, with an average of 31.0 air yards per game and a 36.8 Weighted Opportunity Rating, alongside 28.0 adjusted receiving yards per game, placing him in the 80th percentile, and averaging 7.28 yards-after-the-catch this season.
AI Analysis
Emeka Egbuka o39.5 Receiving Yards (47%) Projection 46.58 (Over)
The Steelers' pass defense allows an average of 4.07 yards after the catch, ranking 9th-worst in the NFL, and their safeties rank 2nd-worst in terms of pressure on quarterbacks.
AI Analysis
Germie Bernard Score a Touchdown (Yes: 23%)
Germie Bernard will serve as the WR2 this week due to injuries to Roman Wilson, Ben Skowronek, and Michael Pittman, having played 93% of the snaps last week with six receptions for 80 yards on nine targets.
AI Analysis
Cade Otton o29.5 Receiving Yards (54%) Projection 33.71 (Over)
Cade Otton is projected to receive 5.0 targets in this week's game, ranks in the 78th percentile among tight ends, averages 31.0 air yards per game, has a WOPR of 36.8, averages 34.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (79th percentile), and averages 7.28 yards-after-the-catch this season.
AI Analysis
Cade Otton o29.5 Receiving Yards (54%) Projection 33.71 (Over)
Cade Otton is projected for 5.0 targets this week, with 31.0 air yards per game this year, a WOPR of 36.8, and 34.0 adjusted receiving yards per game, while averaging 7.28 yards-after-the-catch.
AI Analysis
Jalon Daniels o174.5 Passing Yards (55%) Projection 187.2 (Over)
The Steelers defense allows an average of 5.33 yards-after-the-catch, ranking 5th most in the league, and their safeties have the 2nd worst performance in terms of pressure on quarterbacks.
AI Analysis
Jalon Daniels u7.5 Rushing Attempts (63%) Projection 5.58 (Under)
The game's projections indicate the lowest number of plays this week at 124.5, while Pittsburgh's linebackers are projected as the 2nd-best in the NFL for run defense at 62% efficiency.
AI Analysis
Jalon Daniels u7.5 Rushing Attempts (61%) Projection 5.4 (Under)
This game is projected to have the smallest number of plays this week at 124.5, while Pittsburgh's linebackers are ranked as the 2nd-best in the NFL for run defense, with a 61% rating at offensive guard.
AI Analysis
Jalon Daniels o174.5 Passing Yards (57%) Projection 187.2 (Over)
The Steelers defense allows an average of 5.33 yards-after-the-catch, ranking 5th-worst in the NFL, and their safeties are the 2nd-worst in terms of pressure on quarterbacks.
AI Analysis
DK Metcalf o49.5 Receiving Yards (53%) Projection 53.95 (Over)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team this week with a 60.5% pass rate, DK Metcalf is projected to receive 7.9 targets, has improved his average air yards from 74.0 to 93.0 per game, the Steelers' O-line ranks 5th best in the league, and Metcalf's yards-after-the-catch this year stands at 2.89.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers u229.5 Passing Yards (53%) Projection 210.36 (Under)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run the fewest plays this week with 61.8, while opposing quarterbacks have a 67.3% adjusted completion percentage against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose safeties rank 7th in the NFL for pass coverage.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers Score a Touchdown (Yes: 7%) Projection 0.1 (Yes)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team this week with a 60.5% pass rate and have the league's most pass-focused strategy near the end zone at 65.1%, while their offensive line ranks 5th in protection, and the Buccaneers allow the 2nd-fewest rushing touchdowns and have the best safety corps for run defense.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers u224.5 Passing Yards (51%) Projection 209.28 (Under)
The Steelers are projected to run the fewest total plays this week at 61.8, while opposing quarterbacks have a 67.3% adjusted completion rate against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose safeties are ranked 7th in the NFL for covering pass-catchers.
AI Analysis
Jalon Daniels u7.5 Rushing Attempts (62%) Projection 5.59 (Under)
This game is projected to have the 2nd-smallest number of plays at 125.0, while Pittsburgh's linebackers are projected as the 2nd-best in run defense in the NFL.
AI Analysis
Aaron Rodgers u224.5 Passing Yards (50%) Projection 210.36 (Under)
The Steelers are projected to run the 3rd-fewest plays this week at 62.1, facing windy conditions that typically hinder passing effectiveness and favor ground attacks, while opposing quarterbacks have a low completion rate of 67.3% against the Buccaneers, whose safeties are ranked 7th in the NFL in pass coverage.
AI Analysis
Pat Freiermuth Score a Touchdown (Yes: 23%)
Freiermuth's anytime touchdown odds are playable up to 28%, as he leads Pittsburgh in receiving touchdowns and benefits from favorable coverage near the goal line.
AI Analysis
Emeka Egbuka o39.5 Receiving Yards (48%)
Egbuka's receiving Over is playable up to 42+ yards, having led Tampa Bay with nine targets last week and becoming Jalon Daniels' primary option, while Pittsburgh is near the bottom in separation allowed per target.
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